Horse racing’s most prestigious events kick off in Louisville in just a couple of days. The 149th annual Kentucky Derby begins Saturday, May 6 at Churchill Downs.
Its popularity and prestige make it one of the calendar’s most heavily wagered horse races. As a result, Kentucky horse racing enthusiasts will likely be wagering at least a small amount on the “most exciting two minutes in sports.”
There are plenty of ways for Kentuckians to bet on the race. The FanDuel Racing app is one of the most popular options in the Bluegrass State.
But with a 20-horse field, what should casual fans bet on? Betting responsibly, of course. With countless ways to bet on horse races, it’s easy for a beginning bettor to get lost.
I asked some of Catena Media’s most knowledgeable horse betting writers what they liked in Saturday’s Run for the Roses. Here’s what they said.
Andrew Champagne
I think morning line favorite #15 Forte will be very tough. This boring 2023 Kentucky Derby opinion begs an interesting question: How does one extract value from the chalk?
You could take $20 and bet it on Forte to win. However, his 3-1 price would cap your likely return at $80 or so (your $20 bet, plus a $60 profit). I’d advise a different approach.
The Kentucky Derby’s big field means exacta probables will be very, very high. More combinations mean more places for money to go. Several Derbies of years past have seen exactas overpay, even with the favorite on top. Back in 2013, for instance, 5-1 favorite Orb won, 34-1 longshot Golden Soul was second, and a $2 exacta paid $981.60.
My primary plays are exactas keying Forte on top of #8 Mage, #14 Angel of Empire, #17 Derma Sotogake and #22 Mandarin Hero. I can see #5 Tapit Trice potentially playing “spoiler,” but exactas using two well-bet Todd Pletcher trainees won’t pay enough to be worth playing, no matter how big the field is.
I’ll also have smaller exactas using this quartet on top of Forte. Those will act as “saver” tickets in case the favorite runs second behind a bigger price I see fit to use.
- $4 exactas: 15 with 8,9,14,17 ($16)
- $1 exactas: 8,9,14,17 with 15 ($4)
Alicia Hughes
While it is not the most original selection, I can’t go against Forte in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
He has passed every test thrown at him since his juvenile season and even if you argue that he hasn’t improved that much from age 2 to 3, he has still beaten everyone in front of him. I love his energy and physical condition since he arrived at Churchill Downs and he has the fewest question marks about his ability.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a 1-2 Todd Pletcher finish, as I’m also a big fan of Tapit Trice, who has floated over the track in the mornings and has done nothing but improve this season.
Dave Bontempo
The race looks loaded with potential speed burners. Perhaps even more than last year, when Rich Strike rallied into a wicked pace duel. I will seek a horse with a stalking style.
Verifying wants to go early. So do Kingsbarns and Reincarnate. Jace’s Road may have no other way to go. Derma Sotogake wired the UAE Derby Field.
This puts Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s and Mage in exceptional striking positions. Even Confidence Game might fit well in that style.
I’ll take a shot at one speed horse to stay in the Top 3 and two stalkers in the winning spot.
From there, I’ll narrow down to Forte on top and take Forte on the win line.
I love Tapit Trice’s ideal post, #5, and will put him in an exacta box with Forte. Angel of Empire gets an exacta box with Forte too.
Kingsbarns is the next horse in for me. I will use superfecta combos with them.
And what about Two Phil’s and that 101 Beyer?
Sound like too many options? I feel like Al Pacino in “Scent of A Woman.”
David Champagne
It’s too easy to bet the favorite here, and in a field this big too many disastrous things can happen, especially when the favorite is starting in stall 15. I won’t leave Forte out completely – I’ll be using the favorite in exactas – but I was keying #10, Practical Move, who fit pretty well here off a pair of triple-digit Beyers in California.
And then that one scratched.
To summarize what’s left as I toss in my $72 and root for a couple of these to work out a trip:
- $5 exacta box, #5 Tapit Trice, #8 Mage, #14 Angel of Empire, and #15 Forte ($60)
- $1 trifecta box, same 4 horses ($12)
“Fairway Jay”
I’m keying Derma Sotogake and Tapit Trice on top and bottom of my exacta bets, and adding as well to trifecta bets as my two key win horses. By isolating 1, 2 or 3 horses to win, you can add more horses underneath for less risk than boxing many horses.
I rate Japanese-bred Derma Sotogake as the best in the field. The pick has a lot of value at 10-1 odds or slightly lower.
He should get into a good stalking position with a good break and can fly home to the finish like he did in the UAE Derby. He showed good balance, speed and a late kick in the victory.
A similar run in the Kentucky Derby and I see no reason why Derma Sotogake can’t beat this modest field of 3-year-olds and claim Kentucky Derby glory while snapping a pair of decades-long streaks. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby breaking from post No. 17. And horses exiting the UAE Derby are 0-for-19 in the Kentucky Derby.
